Proof Of Jeweled Onyx Panther Duping And Its Effects On Pricing

This isn't the first time that we've looked into evidence of duping (illicit duplication) of items (both big and small) in World of Warcraft. We've been hearing livestream viewers and readers complaining about duping of the Jeweled Onyx Panther mounts.

We decided to dig deeper into the actual numbers and try to determine if duping of panther mounts is happening and if so what its effects on pricing and the sellability of these mounts by gold-makers. Read on past the jump for more.

The Ingredients

To start our adventure we are going to establish material costs for the Jeweled Onyx Panther.

(All mat prices are based on Mean price on the global item pages (example) on The Undermine Journal as of 4.12.13. While pricing on each server may vary but this will give us a good baseline price.)

• Design: Jade Panther
• Orb of Mystery = 20,000g (From Vendor)
• Wild Jade (20) = 1,155g (57g ea.)
• Living Steel (4) = 1,992g (498g ea.)
• Serpent's Eye (2) = 114g (57g ea.)
• Approx. Total Cost = 23,261g

• Design: Sapphire Panther:
• Orb of Mystery = 20,000g (From Vendor)
• River's Heart (20) = 1,606g (80g ea.)
• Living Steel (4) = 1,992g (498g ea.)
• Serpent's Eye (2) = 114g (57g ea.)
• Approx. Total Cost = 23,712g

• Design: Ruby Panther:
• Orb of Mystery = 20,000g (From Vendor)
• Primordial Ruby (20) = 2,051g (102g ea.)
• Living Steel (4) = 1,992g (498g ea.)
• Serpent's Eye (2) = 114g (57g ea.)
• Approx. Total Cost = 24,157g

• Design: Sunstone Panther:
• Orb of Mystery = 20,000g (From Vendor)
• Sun's Radiance (20) = 1,878g (93g ea.)
• Living Steel (4) = 1,992g (498g ea.)
• Serpent's Eye (2) = 114g (57g ea.)
• Approx. Total Cost = 23,984g

• Design: Jeweled Onyx Panther:
• Jade Panther = 23,261g
• Sapphire Panther = 23,712g
• Ruby Panther = 24,157g
• Sunstone Panther = 23,984g
• Approx. Total Cost = 95,114g

According to the numbers above each of the colored panther mounts costs around 23-24k gold each in materials. So the Jeweled Onyx Panther costs about 95K* in raw materials alone.

*(Marathal noted on twitter that there is a 10% discount available via a guild perk on the Orb of Mystery which would could bring the cost down to 18K. That would bring the total mat cost down around 93K. A bit cheaper but it that still doesn't change the suspicious activity observed on the EU servers. Thanks for the tip Marathal!)

The Proof

Looking at the market pricing and quantity availability charts on The Undermine Journal's global Jeweled Onyx Panther page we can see a few things that should concern anyone thinking of making gold selling Jeweled Onyx Panthers.

Source: The Undermine Journal on 4.12.13

In the charts above the red line is total quantity and the blue section is the market price.

When looking at this chart pay special attention to that grey "100000g" (100K) line on the EU chart and remember that the total mat cost is just under 100K at around 95K. Any mounts listed under that line are pretty much guaranteed to be selling below mat costs.

The first thing we notice about the above charts is that something very unnatural was happening on the EU realms. It seems that sometime around the end of January the total amount of Jeweled Onyx Panther spiked from around 555 to 1171 at the end of February. That is an increase of  100% in just one month.

If you follow the prices along the same time frame you can see an almost direct drop in price from around 103K gold down to around 74kg a drop of around 25%.

74K is interesting because it is actually around 21K below the raw material cost of around 95K. Why would any rational player spend 95K to make a mount to sell it for 74K?

My guess is that they are duplicating either materials for the lower panther mounts and/or duplicating the mounts used as materials for Jeweled Onyx Panther.

If we continue to follow the trends you can see the number of mounts in the EU realms raise and fall. Almost every movement of supply matched by a movement in price.

(It would also appear that in early April a large number of mounts started leaving the economy. This could be from Blizzard removing duped items and/or banning dupers but even with this action the price still hasn't recovered back to break-even with mat cost.)

Normal vs. Abnormal

The reason the EU is so interesting is that the US realms have a completely different set of curves. In the US the price has come down over time but at a very steady rate and the number of mounts has increased at a fairly steady rate.

Also of note is that the market prices for the Jeweled Onyx Panther on US realms are currently sitting around 96K whereas the EU realms are still about 10K under mat cost at 83K.

I think it is so important because it demonstrates the difference between a somewhat natural pricing and supply curve versus one that is disrupted by illicitly duplicated items.

As to why is appears there is more rampant item duping happening on the EU realms I don't have an answer.

The Effects

The effects of illicit duping of items should be fairly obvious. Regular players who put in time and energy gathering materials and making/and or advertising the making of Jeweled Onyx Panther mounts simply can't compete with someone who isn't playing by the rules.

You simply can't sell an item for below raw mat cost. This means that until the duped mounts and the dupers are removed this market is completely ruined on lots and lots of servers.

Simply sit in trade chat for a while and you are bound to hear people selling Jeweled Onyx Panthers for ridiculously low prices. Far far lower than the approximate 95K it takes to make them.

What Should We Do?

So what should we do in this situation? Unfortunately for anyone wanting to make gold selling the Jeweled Onyx Panther the answer is: measure twice, cut once.

Be sure before going into making and/or advertising the ability to make the Jeweled Onyx Panther that you check your auction house and trade chat for mounts being sold below mat cost.

If you are the type to actually try to do something about this my suggestions are:

• Don't buy Jeweled Onyx Panthers that are significantly below mat cost (~95K at the moment). Doing so only supports, encourages and emboldens the bad actors who are ruining the economy selling these illicitly duplicated mounts.
• Report (by right clicking their name and following the prompts) or put in a ticket for anyone you see selling Jeweled Onyx Panthers far below mat costs in trade chat.
• Report anyone you see listing Jeweled Onyx Panthers far below mat costs on the auction house.

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